Share the article:
Updated: November 7, 2025 | Analysis based on verified data with sources
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing one of the worst weeks of 2025. Bitcoin is hovering around $100,000, Ethereum has crashed, and the total market capitalization has fallen by more than 1 trillion USD since early October. Pi Network, as a small altcoin, has felt this drop even more strongly. Why is this happening and what does it mean for PI?
Article content
Estimated reading time: 15 minut
Audio and video overview [Czech]
Audio and video overview [English]
📊 CURRENT MARKET STATE (November 7, 2025)
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Actual price: $100,549-$102,254 [XTB Technical Analysis, November 7, 2025]
- Weekly change:-6,74%
- Monthly change: -4% (October 2025)
- From ATH (October 7, 2025): -18,96% (ATH was $126,198)
- Critical support: $100,000 (psychological level)
Ethereum (ETH)
- Actual price: $3,303–3,331 [MetaMask, CoinDesk, November 7, 2025]
- Decline from peak (November 3–4): ~8.8% (from $3,591 to $3,275) [CoinDesk Analysis]
- Key support: $3,400 (broken)
- Resistance: $4,000-$4,200
- Problem on X/Twitter: Ethereum management faced north winds with negative investors
Total crypto market
- Marketcap: Drop by 1+ trillion USD since early October [Coinmarketcap.com]
- Peak (early October): $4,4 trillion
- Current status: ~$3,4 trillion
- Annual profits: Almost all wiped out (total market +2,5% YTD)
Pi Network (PI)
- Actual price: $0,2143-$0,2287 [CoinCodex, Economic Times, November 7, 2025]
- 24h change: -1,41% to +0,62% (volatility)
- 7-day change: -13,35% [Economic Times Official Data, 7 November 2025]
- Monthly change: October was -7% to -10%
- Marketcap: $1,79–1,83 billion
- From ATH (February 26, 2025): -92,8% (ATH was $2,98)
🔥 CAUSES OF CRYPTO CRASH – MACRO FACTORS
1. Federal Reserve: Jerome Powell – maximum “hawkish” position
What happened:
In late September/early October 2025, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that October rate cut may be the last in 2025, and the new Fed guidance confirmed that a December rate cut is uncertain.
Key data:
- Before comments: Probability of December rate cut = 96%
- After hawkish signals: Probability = 69,3% (estimated based on CME FedWatch Tool)
- Bitcoin reaction: -1,6% in 24 hours after negative Fed signals
- Ethereum reaction: -2% in 24 hours
Why it harms crypto:
- Higher rates = more expensive capital → investors avoid risky assets
- Crypto is a “risk-on” asset → suffers from hawkish Fed policy
- Institutional investors rotate from crypto to bonds (higher yields)
2. AI Bubble Concerns = Tech Selloff
What's happening:
According to an analysis on Financial Content (November 6, 2025):
- Nvidia:-4%
- Nasdaq: -2% (early November period)
- Tech sentiment: Concerns over the overvaluation of AI stocks
Connection with the crypt:
Jeff Mei (COO BTSE) commented:
"If AI and tech stocks see a major selloff, Bitcoin could easily slip below $100,000 — and altcoins may tumble even further."
Reason for correlation:
- Crypto and tech stocks share a similar investor base (retail + institutional risk-takers)
- When tech sells, capital leaves all risk assets [Correlation Analysis, Financial Magnates]
- Crypto often copies Nasdaq movements (high beta correlation)
3. October 10 Flash Crash – Traumatic effect
What happened on October 10, 2025:
- The largest liquidation event in crypto history
- Over $18–19 billion in leveraged positions was liquidated in one day
- Trigger: Macro reversal – strong inflation signals vs. Fed rate expectations
Aftermath:
- The market is still recovering from psychological shock
- Traders are scare high leverage
- Risk appetite significantly lower
Sentiment:
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 21–25 (Extreme Fear) (November 7, 2025) [according to CoinCodex]
- Before crash: 60–70 (Greed)
4. Institutional Exodus – Bitcoin ETF Outflows
Data from Securities: Financial Content (November 6, 2025):
- Bitcoin ETF outflows: $1,15 billion in the last few days
- 6 consecutive days withdrawals (until November 7th)
- November 7: Then $253 million inflows (first stabilization) [Coinbase/XTB reports]
What does this mean:
- Wall Street institutional investors they are leaving crypto
- Retail investors they cannot compensate institutional selling pressure
- Crypto needs ETF inflows for bull market → outflows = bearish
5. Leverage Cascade – $1,78 billion in liquidations
Data from the first week of November [CoinGlass liquidation tracker]:
- Total liquidations: $1,78 billion USD
- Number of traders liquidated: 441,867 (!)
- Long positions: Most liquidations (bulls were overleveraged)
Mechanism:
- Bitcoin will fall by 2-3%
- Overleveraged long positions will receive a margin call
- Forced sell → price drops even more
- More margin calls → cascade effect
- Altcoins are falling 2-3x more than BTC
🔍 WHY IS PI NETWORK FALLING MORE THAN BITCOIN?
General rule: Altcoins fall harder
Comparison dates (November 7, 2025):
| Coin | Weekly decline | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -6,74% | Risk-on baseline |
| Ethereum | ~-9% (in 2 days) | Lower liquidity |
| PiNetwork | -13,35% | Very low liquidity |
| Minor altcoins | -20% to -50% | Extreme volatility |
Why?
- Lower liquidity → smaller volumes can significantly move the price
- Higher volatility → PI has 8,50% historical volatility (vs. BTC ~3%) [CoinCodex volatility data]
- Risk hierarchy → In a bear market, investors flee: Altcoins → ETH → BTC → Stablecoins/Fiat
Pi-specific factors:
1. Token Unlock Pressure ⚠️
November 2025 unlock – VERIFIED from PiScan.io:
- 173 million PI will be released
- At a price of $0,22: ~$38 million USD sales pressure values
Overall outlook (November–December 2025) [PiScan.io unlock schedule]:
- November: 173 million PI
- December: 121 million PI
- total: 294 million PI in 2 months
Why it matters:
- Supply shock = more tokens on the market
- Selling pressure = some holders immediately sell unlocked PI
- Price suppression = demand cannot absorb this influx
Historical context [CoinGape archive]:
- August 2025: 160M unlock → PI down to $0,38
- October 2025: 93 million unlock → correction continued
2. Absence on major exchanges ❌
Where PI is NOT (verified):
- Binance ❌ (see Bybit CEO statement, March 2025)
- Coinbase ❌
- Kraken ❌
- Bybit ❌
Where PI IS [CoinCodex verified exchanges]:
- OKX ✅
- Gate.io ✅
- Bitget ✅
- MEXC ✅
Consequence:
- Limited liquidity → 24h volume only $102 million (vs. BTC $112 billion)
- Smaller retail base → mainly Asian/developing markets
- Institutional investors absent → no ETF, no Wall Street demand
3. Correlation with BTC, but without institutional support
PI x BTC correlation: ~0,85–0,90 (very high)
Problem:
- PI is decreasing when BTC drops (copies bear trend)
- PI is growing slower than BTC (lack of institutional buy pressure)
Result: PI is a “beta play” on Bitcoin – higher volatility, lower upside
4. GCV Hoax – Community Demoralized
Recent hoax [verified in a separate fact-check article, November 1-2, 2025]:
- Coinfomania published: "Pi Network claims $314,159 value"
- FACT: Complete hoax (Pi Core Team NEVER confirmed this – GCV is not included in the white paper)
Impact on sentiment:
- Part of the community still believe GCV → refuses to sell at market price
- Skeptics they lost trust → they sell out of frustration
- Reputational damage → external investors see "unrealistic expectations"
📉 PI NETWORK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (November 7, 2025)
Price Action:
Current structure [TradingView charts, November 7]:
- Support: $0,21 (0,618 Fibonacci + Value Area Low)
- Resistance: $0,25 (immediate), $0,26 (key)
- Range: $0,21–$0,26
Recent movement:
- October 10 ATL: $ 0,172 USD
- October 28 peak: $0,29 USD (rallied +68%)
- October 7: $0,2143–$0,2287 USD (-26% correction from peak)
Technical indicators [TradingView analysis]:
RSI (14): 40–45 (neutral, slightly oversold)
- Below 50 = bearish momentum
- Not extremely oversold (30) = potential for further decline
Capacity:
- 24 hrs: $102 million (loss from peak $109 million)
- trend: Declining from peak on October 28
- Conclusion: Weak buying pressure
Moving averages:
- 50-day EMA: ~$0,27 (resistance)
- 200-day SMA: ~$0,48 (long-term resistance, very distant)
Chart patterns:
Falling wedge (October): ✅ Breakout Up (October 28)
→ But follow-through failed due to macro sell-off
Current pattern: Consolidation range $0,21-$0,26
- Bullish breakout: Above $0,26 → target $0,30-$0,35
- Bearish breakdown: Below $0,21 → target $0,17–$0,19 (ATL retest)
🎯 PREDICTION: WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2025?
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (55% probability)
Conditions:
- Bitcoin falls below $95,000
- Token unlock 173 million PI will create sell pressure
- Macro sentiment remains bearish (Fed hawkish, tech selloff)
Pi Network targets:
- November: $0,17–$0,20 (ATL retest)
- December: $0,15–$0,18 (new ATL possible)
Catalysts:
- ❌ Fed fowkish messaging continues
- ❌ AI bubble burst → Nasdaq -10% → crypto -20%
- ❌ 173 million PI unlock without corresponding demand
Scenario 2: Consolidation & Slow Recovery (35% probability)
Conditions:
- Bitcoin holds $100,000 support
- Fed neutral (no more hawkish surprises)
- Pi community absorbs token unlock
Pi Network targets:
- November: $0,20–$0,24 (sideways)
- December: $0,22–$0,28 (slow growth)
Catalysts:
- ✅ Bitcoin ETF inflows will return (as of November 7: $253 million)
- ✅ Protocol 23 mainnet launch (smart contracts)
- ✅ Pi DEX public launch (planned for December)
Scenario 3: Bullish Reversal (10% probability)
Conditions:
- Bitcoin new ATH above $130,000
- Fed dovish surprise (December rate cut)
- Pi major catalyst (Binance listing, major partnership)
Pi Network targets:
- November: $0,30–$0,40
- December: $0,45–$0,60
Catalysts:
- 🚀 Binance/Coinbase listing (game-changer for liquidity)
- 🚀 Bitcoin new ATH → altcoin season
- 🚀 Major institutional announcement
Probability: Very low due to:
- Macro headwinds (Fed, tech selloff)
- Token unlock pressure
- Absence of specific positive catalysts
💡 WHAT TO DO? PRACTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
For short-term traders:
Bearish strategy (recommended at current sentiment):
✅ Monitor support $0,21 [TradingView alerts]:
- If it holds → buy the dip option
- If broken → wait for $0,17–$0,19
✅ Stop loss recommendation:
- Conservative: Below $0,20 (-7% from current)
- Aggressive: Below $0,17 (-21% from current)
⚠️ Avoid:
- Leveraged long positions (liquidation risk high [CoinGlass data])
- FOMO buy during short-term pumps (+5–10%)
Bullish entry – waiting position:
✅ Wait for confirmation:
- Bitcoin above $105,000 (stable holding)
- PI breakout above $0,26 on HIGH VOLUME
- RSI above 50 (bullish momentum return)
✅ Targets if breakout:
- T1: $0,30 (+40%)
- T2: $0,35 (+63%)
- T3: $0,40 (+86%)
For long-term holders:
HODL strategy:
✅ If you believe in the long-term (2026+):
- DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging): Purchase small amounts regularly ($50–100 per month)
- Ignore short-term noise: Bear market is an opportunity for accumulation
- Wait for the catalysts: Binance listing, Protocol 23, AI utility (OpenMind partnership)
⚠️ Risks expected:
- Token unlocks continue by 2026 (400+ mil. by end 2025) [PiScan.io schedule]
- No guarantee of Binance listing
- Competition in the crypto space is growing
Partial sell strategy – risk management:
✅ Risk management:
- Sale 20–30% if PI reaches $0,30–$0,35
- Leave 70–80% for potential major breakout
- balance if PI makes up >10% of your portfolio
For skeptics/new investors:
Waiting position – wait for signals:
✅ Wait for:
- Bitcoin clarity: Stabilization above $105k or clear support $95k
- Pi catalysts: Real mainnet upgrade, new exchanges
- Macro improvement: Fed turns dovish, tech rally
❌ Do not enter now if:
- You can't absorb a -30% to -50% drawdown
- You expect quick gains (bear market = long recovery)
- You don't believe in the long-term Pi vision
🔥 KEY EVENTS ON THE HORIZON
November 2025:
📅 Token unlock: 173M PI (~$38M USD) [PiScan.io]
→ Impact: Bearish short term
📅 Protocol 23 mainnet (possible):
→ Impact: Bullish if launch successful
📅 Fed meeting (November 12–13):
→ Impact: Key for the entire crypto market
December 2025:
📅 Token unlock: 121M PI (~$26M USD) [PiScan.io]
→ Impact: Bearish
📅 Pi DEX public launch (planned):
→ Impact: Bullish if launch successful + high adoption
📅 Fed meeting (December 17-18):
→ Impact: Rate cut unlikely (69% probability NO) = bearish
📊 COMPARISON: PI vs. OTHER ALTCOINS IN CRASH
Performance comparison (November 7, 2025):
| Coin | Weekly decline | Marketcap | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Micro-caps (XPL, etc.) | -65% to -70% | $50–120 million. | Extreme |
| PI Network | -13,35% | $1,8 billion | High (8,5%) |
| XRP | -12% | $80 billion | Medium |
| Solana | -10% | $100 billion | Medium |
| Ethereum | -8.8% | $400 billion | Lower |
| Bitcoin | -6,74% | $2 billion | Low (3%) |
Conclusion:
PI performance was relatively better than micro-cap altcoins, but worse than top 10 coins – which is expected given lower liquidity.
⚠️ WARNINGS AND RISKS
1. Token Unlock Schedule is a KNOWN and MEASURABLE risk
By the end of 2025 [PiScan.io]::
- November: 173 million PI
- December: 121 million PI
- total: 294 million PI = ~$65 million USD (at $0,22)
Historical pattern:
Every major unlock was followed by a price decline. There is no reason to expect anything different this time.
2. Macro Headwinds are STRONG and REAL
- Fed hawkish = higher rates for longer [Fed guidance, April–November 2025]
- Tech sell-off = AI bubble concerns [Nasdaq reports]
- Institutional rotation = from crypto to bonds [Bitcoin ETF outflow data]
Pi cannot grow against the macro trend. If BTC drops, PI drops more.
3. Absence of Binance/Coinbase = STRUCTURAL liquidity problem
Reality:
- 90% of retail investors use Binance/Coinbase
- Pi is only on OKX, Gate, Bitget = smaller user base
- Low liquidity = higher volatility = higher risk for everyone
4. GCV Hoax Damages Long-Term Reputation
Impact [verified in a separate GCV fact-check]:
- Skeptics they show GCV as proof "Pi is a scam"
- Serious investors are avoided due to "unrealistic community expectations"
- Bybit CEO refuses to flip partly due to GCV hype [Bybit statement, March 2025]
🎯 CONCLUSION: BOTTOM LINE
Why crypto is falling [VERIFIED]:
- ✅ Fed hawkish → elimination December rate cut hopes [Fed guidance]
- ✅ AI bubble fears → tech selloff spreads to crypto [Nasdaq, CoinDesk reports]
- ✅ October 10 trauma → psychological impact on investor sentiment
- ✅ Institutional exodus → $1,15B Bitcoin ETF outflows [Financial Content]
- ✅ Leverage cascade → $1,78B liquidations in November [CoinGlass tracker]
Why PI is dropping more [VERIFIED]:
- ⚠️ Token unlock pressure → 173 million PI in November [PiScan.io]
- ⚠️ Low liquidity → absence of Binance/Coinbase [CoinCodex exchange list]
- ⚠️ High correlation with BTC → copies the bear trend with amplification
- ⚠️ GCV hoax damage → reputational damage [Bybit CEO + community sentiment]
What to expect [FORECAST]:
Short term (November 2025):
- 55% chance: Further decline → $0,17-$0,20
- 35% chance: Consolidation → $0,20-$0,24
- 10% chance: Bullish reversal → $0,30+
Medium term (December 2025–Q1 2026):
It depends on:
- ✅ Bitcoin direction (holds $100k or drops to $90k?) [Monitoring XTB, Yahoo Finance]
- ✅ Fed policy (dovish surprise possible Q1 2026?) [CME FedWatch Tool]
- ✅ Pi catalysts (DEX launch, Binance listing?) [PiBazar.eu tracking]
Investment approach [RECOMMENDATION]:
If you are in PI:
- ✅ DCA if you believe in the long-term
- ✅ Partial sell at $0,30–$0,35 (risk management)
- ⚠️ Avoid leverage (liquidation risk HIGH [CoinGlass])
If you are considering joining:
- ✅ Wait for Bitcoin clarity ($105k hold or $95k support)
- ✅ Wait for Pi catalysts (DEX, smart contracts)
- ❌ Don't get out of FOMO during a pump (+10–20%)
📚 RESOURCES
Macro data:
- Financial Content: Crypto Market Plunges into Liquidity Crisis (November 6, 2025)
- Finance Magnates: Why Crypto Is Going Down (November 5, 2025)
- Fortune: Crypto Market May Be Out of Gas (November 6, 2025)
Bitcoin/Ethereum data:
- XTB: Technical Analysis Bitcoin (07.11.2025)
- CoinDesk: Ethereum Price Analysis (November 6, 2025)
- MetaMask: Ethereum Price Tracker (real-time)
- Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin USD Price History
Pi Network data:
- Coin Codex: Pi Network Price Prediction
- Economic Times: Pi Network Price Today (7 November 2025)
- OKX: Pi Network Price & Trading
- PiScan.io: Monthly Token Unlock Statistics
Technical analysis:
- TradingView: Pi Network Charts & Analysis
- CoinGlass: Liquidation Tracker (real-time)
Fed/Macro:
- CME FedWatch Tool: Probability of Rate Changes
Warning:
This article is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing is high-risk. Token unlocks create known sell pressure. Only invest funds you can afford to lose. Always do your own due diligence (DYOR).
PiBazar.eu provides fact-based analysis without hype and with full transparency of sources. We protect our readers from misinformation and unrealistic expectations.
Related articles …
PiNetwork
Pi Network Announcement
PiNetwork is a blockchain-based cryptocurrency project that aims to allow users to mine coins Pi using smartphones. The project aims to promote the adoption of cryptocurrencies.
The project was launched by doctoral students at Stanford University in 2019. PiNetwork offers users a simple and environmentally friendly way of mining Pi coins by simply opening the app and pressing a button once a day.
One of the features of the Pi network is that users can increase mining speed by expanding their network. Pi Network also aims to increase the value Pi coins by allowing users to create and use web applications on the platform Pi.
PiNetwork is currently launching its mainnet. To to Pi Network To join, you must download the mobile app and enter an invitation code. PiNetwork is an innovative project that aims to pave the way for the future of cryptocurrencies.
How to participate in Pi Network
If you are not a member of the Pi Network, you can get started in 5 minutes by clicking here link. By registering using my referral code jwkkbiz we can earn Pi both. Pi Network is an application that allows you to easily mine the cryptocurrency "Pi" on your smartphone. By pressing a button once a day, you start mining for 24 hours, even if you leave your phone idle. In 2024, I mined 360 days a year, and those who accepted the invitation received many benefits. If you register using a referral code jwkkbiz, you will get a 25% increase in mining speed.
After 30 minings you will pass KYC (Know Your Credit), so remember to enter your real name when registering. If you register incorrectly, you will lose 20% as a penalty.
For more detailed information and reasons for registration, please see here.
You might also like:
- Free shares worth up to €100 on Trading 212
- Pi Network and “$314,159 Value”: The Biggest Hoax in the Project’s History
- Where to watch, listen and read PiBazar.eu externally
- How to evaluate Pi? - determining the value
- Pi Network: What's Next? For Advanced Pioneers
- How to avoid scams?
- iPhone 14 Pro case
Leave a reply